In more troubling news for the re-election prospects of Obama, as well as congressional Democrats nationwide, it appears as though Mitt Romney has, for the first time, taken the lead over President Obama in likely electoral college votes.
I’m not really sure what to think about all of this. It seems that after Obama’s horrible go at the first presidential debate, likely voters have been swinging more and more often towards the GOP ticket. This is especially true in the all-important swing states. According to Real Clear Politics, Romney has now taken small but significant leads in Florida, North Carolina and Colorado, while coming in at a dead-heat tie in Virginia. THESE ARE ALL STATES THAT OBAMA WON IN 2008.
Now, before you get too upset, consider the following. Most of the polls used to determine this math were completed in the days after the first debate, where Romney wiped the floor with Obama’s face. It was such a beat down that this movement in the polls was all but inevitable. After scoring his own win in round two this past Tuesday evening, let’s all hope that Obama will rebound a bit in these critical states.
There is also one other very important asterisk to add to this new article from Real Clear Politics. If you take a look at the current electoral college map, they have rated both Pennsylvania and Michigan as toss-up states that could go either direction. These are states that Obama won by double-digit margins in 2008, but where the vote will be much closer this year. Obama currently has a 5% lead in both states, which should bode well for his prospects. If we were to move both of these midwestern locales into the Obama column, Romney’s likely electoral college lead disappears altogether.
If you would like to take a look at the Electoral College Map put together by Real Clear Politics, just click the following link. They even allow you to create your own Electoral College scenario map…fun stuff!! http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
Finally, no matter what happens in the states listed above as toss-ups or leaning towards Romney, our current President need only be truly concerned about Ohio, where his lead has shrunk as well. Ohio is a must-win for both candidates. No Republican has ever won the presidency without victory in the Buckeye state. As for Obama? He could realistically lose Florida, Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia and still squeak out a victory. Let’s just hope it doesn’t come down to that.
TheLeftyWolfe’s Prediction: Whoever wins Ohio, wins the election. It’s as simple as that.